IMF Offers Economic Growth Expectations and Warns of Risks from AI, High Food and Fuel Prices and Abrupt Increases to Debt and Interest Rates

Bangkok, Thailand - The IMF released two flagship reports on the global economy and financial markets. In the first report, the World Economic Outlook, the IMF maintained its last April 2026 global economy growth forecast of 3.1% and slightly upgraded the forecast for next year to 3.4%.

“In spite of growing threats to the economy from the report, the IMF gives rosy future economic growth projections.” said Eric LeCompte, Executive Director of the religious development group Jubilee USA Network and a United Nations finance expert who monitored IMF meetings since 2010. "The actual data from the report is quite concerning."

The rate of growth remains “lackluster” by historical standards, according to the report. The IMF finds that income gaps will widen. It notes that if artificial intelligence expectations are not positive, investments and financial markets could significantly worsen.

"The expectation reported that AI will keep the economy afloat is unrealistic," added LeCompte. "If AI fails to strengthen the economy and help developing countries, the crises facing most of the world become worse."

The companion report or Global Financial Stability Report underscores artificial intelligence investment risks, alongside country debt challenges and cyber threats, as the most serious threats to financial market stability.

"The report asserts that if expectations on economic growth from artificial intelligence are too optimistic, financial markets will be hurt and access to loans and aid for developing countries will be a casualty,” shared LeCompte.

Addressing the ongoing sovereign debt market turmoil, the report says that the increasing rates that investors charge governments to borrow are a major risk to the current economy and could translate into higher debts for countries.

"High debts plus increasing inflation and food and fuel prices translate to real economic challenges that most of us are experiencing," explained LeCompte.

Read the full World Economic Outlook Report here.

Read the full Global Financial Stability Report here.

Read Jubilee USA's press release on the opening of IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings here.

Read Jubilee USA's press release on IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva's curtain-raiser speech here.

Read Jubilee USA Petition for IMF Support to Fight Ebola here. 

Read more about Jubilee's Annual Meetings events here.

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IMF/World Bank 2026 Annual Meeting Events

The 3-Pillar Approach Turns Two: Assessing the IMF-World Bank Response to Debt Liquidity Challenges

On behalf of Jubilee USA Network, please join us virtually or, with prior registration, in person in Bangkok for our major events during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meeting

October 14 | Bangkok: 9:00–10:30 AM
October 13 | Washington, DC: 10:00–11:30 PM
October 13 | Los Angeles: 7:00–8:30 PM
October 14 | London: 3:00–4:30 AM
October 14 | Brussels: 4:00–5:30 AM
October 14 | Nairobi: 5:00–6:30 AM
October 14 | New Delhi: 7:30–9:00 AM
October 14 | Manila: 10:00–11:30 AM
October 14 | Sydney: 1:00–2:30 PM

Moderator: Eric LeCompte
Executive Director, Jubilee USA Network

Marina Zucker-Marques
Senior Academic Researcher, Boston University's Global Development Policy Center

Reza Baqir
Managing Director, Alvarez & Marsal; Former Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan

Sally Torbert
Global Lead for Policy and Research, International Budget Partnership

Allison Holland
Deputy Director, IMF

The session explores how the 3-pillar approach, for countries deemed to have manageable debt but too high debt payments, is working: How are eligible and beneficiary countries determined? Does the approach adequately respond to their debt challenges? How can all stakeholders monitor implementation, hold all participants accountable and measure success?

Sponsors: Jubilee USA Network, Boston University GDPC, Christian Aid, Catholic Relief Services, Maryknoll Office for Global Concerns, Eurodad, LATINDADD, Verité Research, IBP, Debt Justice Norway

Location: Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, Room 2-210A, Bangkok, Thailand

The event will also be available online: https://imf.zoom.us/j/94606543965?pwd=rr612sRzaLXrbcgnxXvNV4InLfyGuD.1

Registration to the World Bank/IMF Meetings is required to access the premises

RSVP for virtual or in-person attendance is appreciated by clicking here 

Rethinking the Impossible Trinity: Managing Financial Openness in the Global South

October 16 | Bangkok: 11:00 AM–12:30 PM
October 16 | Washington, DC: 12:00–1:30 AM
October 15 | Los Angeles: 9:00–10:30 PM
October 16 | London: 5:00–6:30 AM
October 16 | Brussels: 6:00–7:30 AM
October 16 | Nairobi: 7:00–8:30 AM
October 16 | New Delhi: 9:30–11:00 AM
October 16 | Manila: 12:00–1:30 PM
October 16 | Sydney: 3:00–4:30 PM

Moderator: Patricia Miranda
Global Advocacy Director, LATINDADD

Martin Guzmán
Professor, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA); Former Minister of Economy of Argentina (TBC)

Yan Liang
Boston University Global Development Policy Center

Jorge Luna
Economist, LATINDADD

Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Deputy Director, IMF

This session will explore the conditions under which capital flow management can reduce external vulnerabilities, discourage risky short-maturity and foreign-currency borrowing, and strengthen domestic monetary and financial resilience in the Global South, as well as the IMF and international financial architecture role in supporting, rather than constraining, national policy space.

Sponsors: LATINDADD, INESC, OMEC, Third World Network, MENAFem, Christian Aid, Jubilee USA, Eurodad, ActionAid International

Location: Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, Room 2-210A, Bangkok, Thailand

The event will also be available online: https://imf.zoom.us/j/99092082156?pwd=ohfb11TbApRgrNILsVrUw9Oa96QatG.1

Registration to the World Bank/IMF Meetings is required to access the premises

RSVP for virtual or in-person attendance is appreciated by clicking here 

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IMF Chief Cites Game of Thrones, "Winter is Coming" as Debt, Energy Shocks and AI Confront the World Economy

Washington DC – IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva raised concerns for the global economy with a reference to the television show, Game of Thrones. "Winter is coming," notes the IMF chief.

"We are dealing with a global economy that appears to be getting worse, not better," noted Eric LeCompte, Executive Director of the religious development group Jubilee USA Network and a UN finance expert who monitors the IMF. "The IMF raised as a primary concern too high debt levels."

Record debt levels across the globe are one of the three major issues shaping the global economy according to Georgieva. Artificial intelligence and high energy prices, in addition to debt, are the primary issues shaping the economy. Georgieva delivered her remarks in Singapore ahead of IMF, G20 and World Bank Annual Meetings that begin next week in Bangkok with world leaders from 191 countries.

“Debt is top on the agenda as we approach the Bangkok meetings,” said LeCompte. "High debts for developing countries also means too high food and fuel prices for all of the world."

Rising interest rates, according to the IMF means debts are rising for countries. 

According to Georgieva, the energy price shock has so far been large, but contained and, yet, oil prices remain around $100 per barrel. The cost of energy affects fertilizers, food and key industrial inputs that will put food security at risk.

In a chapter of its flagship World Economic Outlook report the IMF released on Tuesday, it finds that abrupt price spikes in food and basic necessities are a recurring source of crises.

"When the cost of living goes up, we all suffer and the poor suffer the most as food is priced out of reach for too many of us,” shared LeCompte.

Read Kristalina Georgieva's curtain-raiser speech here.

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Eric LeCompte Spotlighted in News Ghana

Eric LeCompte, the Executive Director of Jubilee USA Network, was recently featured in News Ghana, providing further insight on the need for faster and stronger debt relief policies. Read the excerpt below and follow the link to the full article.

Guterres Presses for Timely Debt Relief in Final UN Address

By: News Ghana

“Campaigners say the words are running ahead of the policy. Eric LeCompte, executive director of Jubilee USA Network, a faith-based development coalition, said world leaders broadly agree that debt relief must be faster and more efficient. But, he said, ‘we are not moving forward stronger debt policies.’”

 

Read more here

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UN Secretary General Delivers Debt Relief Plea to Heads of State

United Nations, New York – The UN Secretary General António Guterres, called for debt relief that is timely and effective in his remarks to more than 70 heads of state and 40 heads of government at the launch of the 81st Session of the UN General Assembly.

"There is broad agreement among world leaders that we need faster and more efficient debt relief,” said Eric LeCompte, Executive Director of the religious development group Jubilee USA Network. "Unfortunately, we are not moving forward stronger debt policies to deal with growing challenges in the global economy." 

This fall the UN hosts discussions to advance debt policy commitments agreed in recent summits. At the Fourth Financing for Development Conference held in Seville, Spain, last year, world leaders pledged to reduce debt burdens in developing countries with debt relief, aid, more responsible lending and improving transparency and curbing corruption. The UN agreement in Seville committed to start an intergovernmental process to move forward improvements in the financial system.

Read the UN Secretary General's address to the General Assembly here.

 

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Reuters Features Jubilee USA Executive Director Eric LeCompte September 24, 2026

Jubilee USA Network Executive Director Eric LeCompte was featured in Reuters discussing the International Monetary Fund’s review of the design and conditions of its loan programs.

IMF Review Calls for ‘Fewer but Deeper’ Reforms in Design of Loan Programs

Reuters quotes Eric on countries returning to debt crises: "One of the greatest challenges is that countries are getting back in debt because the previous financial policies, the previous conditionality reports and debt reviews have not been adequate to keep countries out of crisis."

By: August Ball
read more here
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G20 Agrees on Actions on Growth, Debt

Debt Technical-Level Study Group Poised to Feed into November G20 Summit

Washington DC - G20 finance ministers concluded two days of meetings in North Carolina, hosted by Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. 

"The Middle East war, challenges in US bond markets, economic growth, trade and too high sovereign debt were the key issues discussed at the meetings," said Eric LeCompte, a UN finance expert and the Executive Director of Jubilee USA Network, a religious development coalition that monitors G20 meetings. "The G20 agreed that more action on debt and economic growth must take place."

In his opening speech, Bessent focused on pursuing economic growth. A statement released by Treasury or the chair’s statement, was agreed by all G20 members but China and called for faster and more predictable debt relief policies.

“Too many developing countries struggle with high debts and low growth,“ said LeCompte. “There is a growing sense that current debt policies need significant improvement.”

Under its G20 priority on sovereign debt challenges, the US seeks to make sovereign debt restructurings faster, more transparent and more predictable.

“The US government is pressing debt as a key global issue to address," added LeCompte.

Bessent remarked that work on global debt will remain a G20 priority and announced a G20 Technical-Level Study Group to maintain momentum with the presidents and prime ministers of G20 countries when they meet in Miami in December.

“The G20 study group on debt shows the commitment of the US government to improve debt policies,” shared LeCompte.

Read the Chair's Statement on the G20 Second Meeting of the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. 

 

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US Hosts G20 Finance Ministers to Discuss Debt, Bond Markets and Growth

Bond Markets and Middle East Wars Frame Discussions as Ministers Arrive in Asheville

Washington DC – On Monday, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors arrive in Asheville, North Carolina, for two days of meetings. In a briefing for the G20, the IMF noted that the economic shock of the Middle East war continues to damage growth and five-year economic projections remain close to their weakest point since 2009. As chair of this year’s G20 finance track, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an agenda that centers on accelerating economic growth, global imbalances, improving debt restructurings and transparency, and modernizing financial regulation.

“The G20 meets amid growing concerns on the economy and our high food and fuel prices,” said Eric LeCompte, the Executive Director of the religious development organization Jubilee USA Network. LeCompte has monitored G20 meetings since 2010. “The immediate worries about the US bond market could overtake conversations.”

Global debt levels remain at an all-time high and continue to rise. In a program on debt sustainability G20 finance leaders adopted unanimously last year – the only consensus they reached in 2025 – they agreed that high debt is an obstacle to growth in many developing countries and undermines investments in health, education and infrastructure priorities.

“Dealing with global debt is essential for boosting economic growth for everyone,” added LeCompte.

Earlier in the year the US G20 Presidency led a process to renew guidelines for sovereign debt restructurings and build support for a creditor-debtor agreements blueprint, both seeking to strengthen transparency, monitoring and speed in debt reduction processes.

“The US agenda seeks to address debt vulnerabilities before they turn into crises and expand the number of countries that benefited from debt restructuring tools such as the G20 Common Framework,” shared LeCompte.

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Submission to the 2026 Review of IMF and World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (LIC-DSF) - Public Consultation

Jubilee USA Network, June 26, 2026

Jubilee USA Network is an alliance of more than 75 US organizations and 750 faith communities working
with 50 Jubilee global partners to build an economy that serves, protects and promotes the participation
of the most vulnerable.

We are glad to take this opportunity for offering feedback on proposals for the Review of the Bank-Fund
Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries (“LICs-DSF” or “the Framework”).

From the outset, we want to overall express our appreciation as the reform proposals go in the right
direction and show a serious attempt to take on board recommendations we provided throughout the
review process based on our research and observations. We are aware that, for some of our
recommendations, the historical data and analysis to be able to do them justice may not be in place, or
not yet, and we acknowledge the good faith effort to operationalize them in such imperfect conditions,
or start processes that can get there.

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Jubilee USA Special Counsel Damon Silvers’ Intervention at Paris Club-Hosted Forum on Debt

Delivered at the 13th edition of the Paris Forum, “Advancing cooperation in a complex debt landscape,” (June 24, 2026), hosted by the Paris Club

Damon Silvers, Special Counsel, Jubilee USA Network

Question to Panel: Streamlining sovereign debt restructurings by strengthening coordination between creditors

Professor Hagan asked at the beginning of this session, what kind of problem do we have in sovereign credit markets, and what kind of change is required?

It seems like the answer is right in front of our faces– and it is touched upon by both the US and Chinese government speakers earlier today– a system that takes a long time to produce opaque and inequitable outcomes as between creditors, and a system that has no real or timely way to deal with diverse and potentially intransigent private creditors that are increasingly prominent in a system designed at the founding of the Paris Club for public creditor leadership.

We have heard over and over again today that debt restructuring involves enormous stakes, affecting the living standards and human capital development of billions of people, planetary decarbonization efforts, and global security arrangements. Consider the stakes in a situation like the impact of Hurricane Melissa– which cost Jamaica an amount equivalent to 56.7% of GDP in a country whose foreign debt service burden then accounted for 38% of its total tax revenues.

And yet the actual architecture for resolving troubled sovereign debt is less well defined than the legal regimes that would govern the bankruptcy of a small business in any of the Paris Club member countries. Specifically no member country’s commercial law system would work if individual creditors could hold out and seek full payment in the courts.

Would the speakers agree that sovereign debt restructuring requires actual rules to prevent holdouts from seeking full payment in national courts AND that the definition of these rules for debt restructuring need to include the views of borrowing countries as well, not only coordination amongst creditors? 

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